As Washington’s priorities shift, a new call emerges for Arab self-reliance and regional unity.
By Rashid Mahmood
Chief Editor, Monthly Prospera
Arab Investment in the US Alliance: Time to Pivot Toward Regional Self-Reliance
DUBAI | May 2026 – For nearly half a century, the strategic calculus of the Gulf monarchies rested on a single, unshakeable pillar: an alliance with the United States. In return for oil security, basing rights, and billions in sovereign wealth investments, Arab capitals received a security umbrella and a seat at the global table.
However, a powerful new opinion piece published in Al Jazeera on May 3, 2026, has thrown that longstanding logic into sharp relief. The article, titled “It does not make sense to invest more Arab resources in a US alliance,” argues that after decades of deep interdependence, the Trump administration’s overt prioritisation of Israeli interests over Arab concerns has rendered the old bargain obsolete.
As leaders gather for the upcoming World Prosperity Summit in Abu Dhabi, the analysis presents a stark choice for finance ministers and sovereign fund managers: double down on a faltering Western alliance, or redirect trillions in assets toward a self-sufficient Arab future.
The $2 Trillion Question
The author acknowledges that the US-Gulf relationship remains, on paper, one of the most productive in modern history. Trade exceeded 120billionin2024,andthelandmarkRiyadhsummitin2025producedagreementsworthover∗∗2 trillion**. Last year alone, Gulf sovereign wealth funds funnelled nearly $70 billion into US assets, recycling petrodollars to sustain America’s low borrowing costs and the dollar’s global dominance.
“In return, Gulf governments expected something fundamental: that their core interests would be recognised, if not prioritised,” the article states. Those interests—economic diversification, regional stability, and energy security—were once perfectly aligned with Washington’s stated goals.
Yet the author argues that this alignment was a façade. The US decision to launch a war alongside Israel against Iran—while sidelining Gulf partners—exposed the alliance’s true hierarchy. “No matter how much these countries have done… their interests will remain expendable in Washington whenever they collide with those of Israel,” the piece asserts.
Geography vs. Globalisation
For Monthly Prospera’s readership of regional investors and policymakers, the most critical argument is one of strategic valuation. The author warns that placing Arab security in the hands of a power located “thousands of kilometres away” is a liability, not an asset.
“Americans are not the sons of this land nor of this region,” the article reads. “No matter how much the international system evolves… geography and demography will remain decisive in shaping interests.”
This is not merely a political grievance but a financial warning. By aligning with Washington’s chaotic approach—specifically its support for Israeli expansionist objectives—the Gulf states are now exposed to extreme volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The author suggests that US policy has actively endangered the very oil flows that underpin the Gulf’s wealth.
A Critique of Emirati Policy
In a pointed section that will draw attention in boardrooms from Dubai to Riyadh, the article specifically criticises the United Arab Emirates’ recent decision to leave OPEC. While the move was framed by Abu Dhabi as a national interest play to increase production autonomy, the columnist calls it a strategic error.
“This move signals withdrawal rather than deepening cooperation… in the long term, it plays into the hands of those who want to divide and rule the Arab world,” the author writes.
By exiting the cartel, the argument goes, the UAE weakens the collective leverage Arab oil producers hold over the US and global markets—just when that leverage is needed most.
The Prospera Imperative: A New Arab Model
So what is the alternative? For investors accustomed to parking capital in US Treasuries and Silicon Valley startups, the article’s prescription is radical but precise.
Instead of recycling wealth into Western alliances, the author calls for a redirection of resources toward intra-regional development, economic self-sufficiency, and a “balanced power framework” similar to the models pursued by Turkey and Iran.
“They should focus on internal dialogue and greater cohesion and pursue a broader strategic framework that secures balances of power based on political partnership and constructive competition,” the article concludes.
For Monthly Prospera, this translates into a clear asset shift: away from passive investments in the US defence industrial base, and toward pan-Arab infrastructure, joint logistics corridors, a unified energy grid, and—critically—a regional security architecture that does not require a superpower’s signature.
Outlook
As the US prepares for another presidential cycle, and as Israel’s regional role continues to dominate Washington’s foreign policy, the Gulf states stand at a crossroads. The Al Jazeera opinion piece is not an official policy document, but it reflects a growing sentiment among Arab intellectuals and former security officials: the era of unilateral reliance on America is ending.
The question for Monthly Prospera readers is no longer if the Gulf should pivot, but how swiftly $70 billion in annual outflows can be restructured to build a prosperous, independent Arab future.
